Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

关于组建深圳市新华书店发行集团的研究与论证

<正> 按照新闻出版署关于深化图书发行体制改革,培育和规范图书市场的要求,为进一步贯彻党的十五大精神,加快国有企业改革步伐,深圳市新华书店发行集团调研小组赴成都、重庆、广州等地进行了考察,并对部分省市组建发行集团的情况进行了认真调研。本着“统一规划,分步实施”的原则,以建立现代企业制度为目标,提出了成立深圳市新华书店发行集团的研究论证方案。通过战略性重组来组建特区的发行集团,既是贯彻市委市政府组织实施大公司大集团的战略部署;又是适应深圳二次创业,创建现代文化名城的需要。     

一种双机热备份计算机系统

本文探讨了计算机系统冗余备份的工作原理和实现方法，介绍了一种实用的双机热备份切换、控制系统和其切换、控制单元的组成和工作原理。     

iTV: A major opportunity for financial services,or not?

Interactive television has arrived, thanks to substantial technology investments that have been made by Sky and others. It is growing in importance as innovative interactive applications are developed for broadcast programmes (eg the BBCi service and Big Brother), and for advertising — and will develop further when broadband deployment gets to critical mass. Readers should not expect a television-variant of the world wide web, however. This was tried during 2000–2002 in the form of web look-alike, interactive ‘walled garden’ sites, and failed to attract critical mass footfall. The model has evolved and now revolves around interactive content synchronised with broadcast, which offers financial services companies an interesting new way to increase awareness and to differentiate the service presentation. Furthermore, over the next ten years, broadband is expected to usher in a new era of personalised television — in which specialised broadcasts (such as personal pensions advice programmes) can be made available on demand. The observations in this paper are mainly drawn from the UK, where digital television penetration is high; the lessons can be applied more broadly, however, and are relevant to any organisation thinking of promoting its service through entertainment channels.     

Global economy gathering strength

Encouraged by a highly expansionary economic policy, the global economy is enjoying a rapid upturn. Utilisation of capacity is high in many sectors, particularly in the growth centres of the USA and East Asia, where China leads the field. With inflationary risks on the increase, most countries are now shifting the focus of economic policy. Fiscal policy in particular can be expected to provide little in the way of further stimulus. In addition, there has been a turnaround in interest rates in many countries. Yet how quickly can the monetary reins be tightened without jeopardising growth or endangering price stability?